What to Watch 2/24

Tonight's choice is about as easy as it gets.

What to watch tonight: Miami @ Chicago 5:00PM PST on TNT  Line: Miami -3

Two of the top teams in the East battle it out.  LBJ, Wade, and Rose.  Not much more you can ask for.  If the Bulls have any thoughts of catching the Heat and Celtics, tonight is a must win game.  Already trailing by 3 games in the standing, they can't afford to fall 4 back.

This is the first time these two teams will face off at full strength.  LeBron and Joakim Noah were out the first game.  D Rose led the Bulls to win, but tonight we should get the best from both teams.  Miami has yet to assert themselves against the top team in the league only 1-6 versus Boston, Chicago, San Antonio, LA Lakers, and Dallas.  As good as they look at times, at some point they're going to need to beat a top team.

What to watch for:  The defense scheme Tom Thibadeau comes up with to try and slow down the Heat.
This is only Joakim Noah's second game back, how he's reincorporated into the offense.
Just watch and marvel at the speed of Rose and James, they just play at another gear than the rest of the league.  This really should be great basketball.

If this game leaves wanting more basketball, the Celtics take on the new Nuggets afterwards also on TNT.

Degenerates take Chicago +3.

Other news:

•  Adam Wainwright will need Tommy John surgery and miss the 2011 season. 
• Georgetown PG Chris Wright broke his hand, he is expected to return this season. 
• Poor, poor Baron Davis got traded to Cleveland.  From Blake to Cleveland.  Ouch.  What will be higher, Baron's games played for Cleveland or weight gained?
• Kobe plays fantastic late to get a rare win in Portland.  There was also a Ron Artest sighting.  
• Tiger continues to struggle, I really feel bad from him now.  

D Will Traded

Deron Williams has been traded to the Nets.  This seems to be a complete shocker to the entire sports media and even Deron himself.  In a world where ever whisper is reported, it's quite impressive that these teams pulled off a deal this big with no one knowing about it, even the key figure in the trade.  Deron reportedly found out while in the training room with a few of his now ex-teammates, as the news came across the sports ticker.

Not really sure what's going on in Utah.  Seems dysfunctional to me.  Coach quits and you trade your best player.  Love the trade to New Jersey, even if for only 18 months.  In the next 18 months if they can somehow convince Williams to resign this will be an epic heist.  

Question I need answered for the Jazz is why now?  I imagine they could have got this exact seem deal next year, possibly a better deal if the team knew they could extend him.  

What the Jazz got: Derrick Favors, Devin Harris, and 2 first round draft picks.  Favors is young and still has tons of upside.  My concern, he was never dominate at Georgia Tech and has done nothing this year.  The Jazz were really hoping that they'd be able to draft him in the last draft.  Harris is a serviceable point guard, he never turned the corner to becoming a great point guard after being traded to the Nets for Jason Kidd.  It's possible he just needs a change a scenery, but that new scenery is about to dump the rest of their salaries, if possible.  

What the got: Deron Williams, an elite point guard.  He's constantly in the discussion over who is the best point guard.  Just being in that conversation is enough for me.  They also will receive Dan Gadzuric and Brandan Wright from Golden St.  Gadzuric is just an bad salary they had to take, but Wright has some talent.  Wright in only his second year out of North Carolina has a chance to be a very good player.  Now that he'll get a chance to play, he will have an opportunity to show what he's got.  Hopefully this trade will also wake up Brook Lopez, who thus far has decided to take this season off.

The Nets have no chance of making the playoffs this year and the talent surrounding Williams will be minimal.  Williams is a player you can build around, but the Nets will need to do it fast in the off-season, to be competitive next year. 

By the way, what is going on to the Western Conference.  In two days they lost two of their top 6 players.  Just like that, Steve Nash might be the favorite to make the playoffs.   

This is a great start to the possibilities that await in New Jersey with Mikhail Prokhorov at the helm.  Anything is possible.  Stay tuned.

Melo Traded

I'm still sifting through all the facts and will have my take on the trade either this evening or tomorrow morning. Here's what you should read now:

Nate Silver's take here. We all know Nate is much smarter than all of us. One caveat though, is he used Hollinger's PER to do his analysis. Skeptical Sports Analysis discredits PER here.

Despite the flaws in Hollinger's stats, I still respect his opinions see his take here (ESPN Insiders only).

Couple quick thoughts:
I'm happy for New York fans. This may never lead to a title, but at least the Knicks are now a team to be taken serious for the next few years.
Someone needs to explain the Brewer/Randolph trade to me, just don't get it.
Denver will avoid the Cavs & Raptors horribleness by making this trade.
The NBA is great and the playoffs just got that much more exciting.
This whole thing might come down to how CP3 and Amare's knees hold up.

What to watch tonight: Atlanta @ LA Lakers 7:30 PM PST on NBA TV.  Line: Lakers -7.5

I'm a firm believer that the Lakers need to catch Dallas for the 2 seed in the West if they want to have any chance of winning the title for the third straight year.  The Lakers currently trail Dallas by 2.5 games in the standings.  The run to catch Dallas has to start tonight.  Hopefully the All-Star break is just what the doctor ordered.  Kobe sure looked the freshest he looked all year on Sunday.  Nothing like taking the last two regular season games off to make sure you're ready to go in a meaningless game.  The ego is a wonderful thing.  Atlanta who trails Orlando by 1 game for the 4th seed, might now just be the 6th best team in the East.  They do have a 5.5 game lead on the Knicks.  Despite Atlanta's struggles against Orlando, I'd much rather play them in the first round then however the 3 seed is between Boston, Chicago, and Miami.  Just under 30 games to go and the races are tight in both conferences.  Do yourself a favor and enjoy a quality NBA game to get for ready for the next few months.

Degenerates take LA Lakers -7.5.

2/21/11 What to Watch

This will be a daily feature here.  Most of us live busy lives and just can't watch every basketball, even if we wanted to.  I used to really struggle trying to figure out what I should watch in my limited time.  After a few years of research, mostly through trail and error I have come up with a strategy to make sure I'm only watching quality entertaining basketball.  ESPN recommends too many games and kenpom doesn't recommend enough.  So, I'll do the dirty work for you and sort through the schedule and tell you what game(s) you should be watching tonight.  I know your time is precious so I will do my best not to waste it.

#20 Syracuse at #14 Villanova 4PM PST on ESPN.  Line: Villanova -4

Villanova preview found here.
Syracuse preview found here.

My take:  "The Two Coreys" might have been canceled, but Villanova has their own version.  The seniors Corey Stokes and Corey Fisher lead the Wildcats and as they go the 'Cats go.  The two are very tough guards for a match-up zone, which led Villanova to a season high eleven 3s in the first game.  Corey Fisher is big tough point guard who can penetrate the zone, but also knocked down the 3.  Fisher is coming off a career high thirty-four points, including a game tying 3 in the final seconds against DePaul to send the game to overtime.  Stokes is their best three point shooter (41.5%) and also is very careful with the ball, crucial against a Syracuse team that loves to get out and run off turnovers.  If Syracuse wants a different result than the first game, they are going to have to extend the zone out and force Nova to try and score in the paint against Rick Jackson.  The 'Cuse also needs to force turnovers, to allow Scoop Jardine to get out lead the break to get some easy baskets.  In the end I see this game playing out very similar to the first one with Villanova winning by high single digits.

Degenerates take Villanova -4.

Other Degen Action:
Oklahoma St. +17
Samford +17.5
Tenn-Chattanooga +3.5
Western Carolina -3.5
Morgan St. -13.5

Who's #1?

I don't like polls.  In college basketball they are for the most part pointless, they probably have a small effect on seeding, but mostly harmless.  That being said, it's still interesting to see how the polls will react to all top 4 teams losing.  Here's what Mike Miller thinks.

Here's how I'd vote:

1. Ohio St. (25-2)  I would have left them here after the Wisconsin loss and would still have them here after today's loss.  Nothing to be ashamed about losing in 2 places where no other team has won all year.  E'Twaun Moore was fantastic today.  I don't see this team losing the rest of the year and I see them winning the Big 10 tournament setting them up as the #1 seed of the NCAA tournament.

2. Duke (25-2)  Cruised to another easy win Sunday night at home.  They still have two tough road games to go against Virginia Tech and North Carolina.  I expect them to slip up in one of these games, but as of now not much to complain about in Durham.  Oh except the whole Kyrie thing.

3. Kansas (25-2)  They got destroyed on Monday.  It was never a game.  It's pretty bad that they weren't ready when the ball was rolled out against their in-state rivals, but Pollen got hot early and that was it.  Kansas still doesn't play defense and the Morris twins are always seconds away from going Rasheed on someone.  I still think they have too much talent and a very good resume.  Self does need to get this team together soon or they could be looking at another early exit.

4. San Diego St. (27-1)  Best record in basketball.  Some very good road wins, still lack the marque win.  That might come Saturday when the Jimmer Show comes to Viejas Arena.  A win should mean winning the MWC conference and maybe receive a few first place votes.  Early this week Vegas Watch defends SDSU for a #1 seed.

5. Texas (23-4)  I didn't see what happened yesterday.  I have seen them lately though and this team is playing defense.  It's head scratching watching Texas play so well, while you know Barnes is still their coach.  Somehow he got these guys to buy in and play phenomenal defense.

6. BYU (25-2)  The Jimmer Show has been struggling lately or at least has been playing more like a human.  Team still has been winning easily since their hiccup in The Pit.  Home vs. Colorado St. then they go for the regular season sweep against San Diego St.

7. Pittsburgh (24-3)  The Big East is brutal.  You're destined to lose tough games on the road, you still might want to contest a lay-up though.  I really love this team.  I'm not sure their is a better coach in the nation than Jamie Dixon.  I also know this team will disappoint me come tourney time.

8. Wisconsin (20-6)  This team has to get better away from the Kohl Center.  This team has to play better defense. As long as Taylor and Leuer are still there late in games this team will have a chance to win every game they play.  Plus Mike Bruesewutz' hair is good for at least a point a game too.

9. Purdue (21-5)  Very impressive week for them.  They will undoubtedly be ESPN's Weekly Watch's Team of the Week.  As I mentioned early E'Twaun Moore was straight filthy today.  If Lewis Jackson can play more constantly like he played on Wednesday this team can be very dangerous.  JaJuan is an extremely tough guard and Moore is always capable of performance like today.

10. Kentucky (19-7)  Every time I watch them I just feel like this is a poor man's version of last the few Calipari coached teams.  Maybe a poor is too strong, middle class man's version.  Jones and Knight are obviously both very talented, but both can go through stretches of inefficient offense.  The team also needs to start defending the 3 ball better.  Despite the complaints, still have them at #10.

The rest:

11. Arizona (23-4)  What a game by D. Williams yesterday.  Guy is also shooting over 67% from 3 pt. land.
12. Washington (18-8)  Isaiah Thomas is very good, so they've lost some close road games, it happens.
13. North Carolina (20-6)  Harrison Barnes is good, here's an example of a poster.  
14. Villanova (21-6)  Next 3 teams, put them in a bag and just pick one.  All have lots of good things about them and quite a few bad things.
15. Georgetown (21-6)
16. Syracuse (21-6)
17. Utah St. (25-3)  Locked up an at-large bid if things go awry in WAC tourney with last night's win.
18. Notre Dame (21-5)
19. George Mason (23-5)
20. Maryland (17-10) If they could just learn to make an open shot.
21. West Virginia (17-9)
22. Louisville (20-7)  Peyton Siva might be the only thing faster than Rick Pitino
23. Missouri (21-6)
24. Vanderbilt (20-6)
25. Connecticut (20-6)  I think we can officially put away the Kemba for POY talk.